September 16, 2026—The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously today to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, as anticipated by most economists and financial markets. The decision, alongside the newly released Summary of Economic Projections, signals the committee’s commitment to curbing inflation, and suggests a consensus for additional tightening before year end.
Chairman Kevin Warsh asserted that today’s rate decision is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s mandate to deliver on stable prices. “We must be confident that the underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh, “Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied.”
He said the FOMC made a “sober decision, serious decision, responsible decision,” taking time to monitor the broader macroeconomic trajectory in the last few months as well as inflation trends and geopolitical factors. When asked about the impact of the latest CPI data, Warsh warned against overreliance on short-term data, saying, “Datapoints are noisy. Trends matter.”
When asked if the markets drove today’s rate decision, he remarked, “The Fed has an enormous amount of power. These are decisions we make. But getting the understanding right between financial markets and the Fed is a balance I have long thought could be better struck. We made this decision today based on our assessment of the situation, based on our assessment of the trajectory for employment, based on our judgement on the strength of the economy. Sometimes the market tries to prejudge our outcomes. I’ll observe market prices and see what they have to say, but today was our decision.”
While 16 of the 18 participants project at least one more rate increase in 2026, Chairman Warsh, who structurally opposes forward guidance, said he will not prejudge their future action.
A recording of the press conference of the September FOMC meeting will soon be available on the Federal Reserve’s YouTube page. Additional materials will be posted in the coming days on their website. For additional information on how the public views monetary policy and how the market adjusts to macroeconomic forces, you may read the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s September 2026 article, “How Do Market Expectations React to the FOMC Dot Plot?“
Editor’s note: This information is provided for educational purposes only.