October 28, 2026—The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% today, in a move that many economists believe guarantees a rate increase in December.
The Fed last moved in September, adding a quarter point. The FOMC’s Meeting Statement sounded upbeat, stating that “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace,” and that “Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.”
Two dissents, both for a hike
Ten members backed the hold. Voting against the policy action were Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who suggested increasing the range by another quarter point at this meeting.
A pledge from the Committee
On prices, the FOMC Statement said bluntly, “Inflation remains elevated.” The Committee went on to explain their decision saying, “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent goal.” The final line of the Statement restates a pledge made for several consecutive meetings by Fed Chair Warsh: “The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Some analysts believe that the Fed is smart to take a wait-and-see approach, allowing more time for the economy to respond to the hike in September and other factors. Others believe that the upcoming midterm elections may have factored into the Committee’s decision. Asked whether that timing mattered, Chair Kevin Warsh said, “I don’t believe it had any role in the decision, not just for me, but for my colleagues around the room.”
A new FOMC meeting calendar
Warsh also announced a change in how the Committee works. “We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC, but in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated,” he said. That leaves seven rate decisions next year, with the count falling to six in 2028.
A FOMC Meeting Statement and a recording of the press conference following the meeting are now available on the Federal Reserve’s website.
Editor’s note: This information is provided for educational purposes only.